Wednesday, October 29, 2014
New poll numbers show good news for Alaskan Democrats.
600 sample of registered voters, fielded Friday 24th - Sunday 26th. MOE +/- 4%.
There are two likely voter subgroups for this survey, one fairly loose (544 sample), and one tighter (330 sample). I'm giving results for both screens for transparency. Suffice to say, the 544 sample suggests a 90% turnout, which is highly unlikely, even this year... while the 330 suggests a 55% turnout, which is historically very close to reality. Also the age distribution of the 330 sample is exactly what you would see if you combined Alaska census data for age with average turnouts by age group. In other words, the 544 gives us good sample size in our view of the electorate, the 330 is the closer modeling of turnout on election day:
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Senator Mark Begich |
US SENATE:
544 sample: Begich (D) 48.3% Sullivan (R) 41.6% Other 6.5% Undecided 3.6%
330 sample: Begich (D) 50.1% Sullivan (R) 42.2% Other 5.3% Undecided 2.4%
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Forrest Dunbar |
US CONGRESS:
544 sample: Dunbar (D) 42.6% Young (R) 44.4% McDermott (L) 9.5% Undecided 3.5%
330 sample: Dunbar (D) 46.1% Young (R) 40.6% McDermott (L) 9.6% Undecided 3.7%
Not much of a difference in the Senate race between the two screens... Begich has a 6.7% lead in one, 7.9% in the other.
The Congress race is interesting... Young up by 1.8% when you look at the wider population, but zero in on the people who are the highest probability to turn out and Dunbar has a lead of 5.5%.
That's what happens when you really tick people off two weeks before an election.
I had been avoiding pollsters lately so I was not part of this one, however yesterday I did participate in two back to back polls, and one was for Moore, so I imagine that the next poll will include my input.
I have to say that if these polls are accurate it indicates some very good news for Alaskans.
It would be very unusual for Dan Sullivan to win against a lifelong Alaskan, as regardless of politics we tend to protect our own. Begich may not vote the way that many Alaskans want him to in Washington, but he is still one of us.
As for Don Young, well one of us or not, he is becoming too much of an embarrassment for Alaskans to tolerate any longer.
Quite literally every time I hear his name come up it is right before somebody expresses anger and frustration at having him represent us in D.C..
I really think that Don Young may finally have pissed off too many people to wind the election.
About damn time!
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