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Democrats push back on Nate Silver's prediction of a "slight" Republican advantage in 2014.

Courtesy of the National Journal:

Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down.

In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014.

"In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecast a 61 percent likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority," Cecil said. "Three months later, Democrats went on to win 55 seats."

The DSCC memo took pains to compliment Silver, saying his work at newly launched FiveThirtyEight was "groundbreaking." And the group's main critique—that Silver's model relies on a smattering of haphazard early polling in battleground states—is one that he himself acknowledges is a limitation.

But the comprehensive pushback from Cecil, the powerful committee's key staffer, is a testament both to the influence Silver wields and the sensitivity of Senate Democrats to the perception they're losing their grip on the upper chamber. Other outlets have suggested similar odds on the Senate, but none have earned this kind of rebuttal.

You know I have to say I am gratified to see the Democrats getting angry and pushing back against this perception that they are not motivated to turn out in 2014.

That is exactly the kind of defiance that we need to hang onto our seats, and perhaps even gain a few more.

There are some who have suggested that this is just a case of reverse psychology by Silver in order to energize the Democratic base, but I disagree with that.

I don't know if Nate Silver is a religious man or not, but if he is I would bet that he prays to the gods of math, data crunching, and logic.

He is not somebody who would fudge numbers in order to make a point, he has too much respect for them to do that.

So I believe that he believes his calculations are correct.

The only question remaining is are the progressives out there willing to see a replay of 2010, or are they ready to make people like Sarah Palin, Sean Hannity, and now Nate Silver eat crow?

I know my answer.

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