World News Korner

The great Nate Silver says that the GOP is a "slight favorite" to take the Senate. Uh oh.

Courtesy of Salon:

“We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber,” Silver writes Sunday at FiveThirtyEight. “The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.”

Silver writes that he is “bullish on Republican chances” in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas, and that the GOP could take control of the Senate if it wins at least two additional races in Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska or Michigan — states that are at the moment very much in play, he notes. Wins in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire could be considered “backup options” for the GOP, according to Silver.

Now if you are like me, and place a great deal of credibility in what Nate Silver says, a man who had the single best track record in the last few elections cycles as picking the winner, you might feel as if you have been punched in the gut.

However before you start to panic, and I admit that panic started for me about two lines into the above paragraphs, first read this:

As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races. [...]

Okay well that's a little better, but it still has to serve as a not to be ignored warning that we have GOT to get off of our asses and vote this midterm, or we will be stuck in neutral for the next two years.

Or what's worse we may even start to go backwards, and lose some of the important progress that we have made.

This all comes down to turnout, and everybody expects turnout on the liberal side to be low.

We HAVE to prove them wrong. We HAVE to!

Here is what Digby suggests we need to do in order to inspire the young and minority voters:

For a young voter or voter of color, voting for Democrats isn't a matter of hope for a better future. It's basically a defensive crouch to prevent the insane sociopaths from taking over. To provide real hope, Democrats would have to start pushing for a $15 minimum wage, for basic universal income, for single-payer healthcare, for a green jobs Apollo Program, for student loan forgiveness, and similar policies.

I do not think that campaigning for single payer health care is an option at this point, but his other suggestions are more than valid.

We need to excite the base, and there are many policies the Democrats could introduce that would do exactly that.

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